LAST UPDATE | 18 May

VOTERS ACROSS POLAND, Portugal and Romania headed to the polls today to vote in tightly contested elections.

In Poland, the tight presidential election will be decisive for the future of the country’s pro-EU government, while Portugal is voting in its third general election in three years.

And in Romania, the tense presidential election rerun could reshape the direction of the key NATO member bordering war-torn Ukraine.

Poland

In Poland, centrist Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is expected to win 30% of the vote, according to opinion polls, ahead of nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki on 25%.

That would put both through to a run-off on 1 June at a fraught moment for Europe.

Rafal Trzaskowski, Mayor of Warsaw and a candidate for president of Poland from the Civic Platform party Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags on, far-right populists continue to make electoral gains and ties with Washington are under strain.

Voting ends at 9:00 pm (8pm Irish time), when exit polls are expected. The final official results of the contest, in which 13 candidates are running, are expected on Monday.

Ever since Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition came to power in 2023, key government initiatives have been blocked by vetoes from nationalist President Andrzej Duda.

The electoral campaign in Poland – a member of both the European Union and NATO– has largely revolved around foreign policy, showcasing a clash of philosophies over Poland’s engagement with the EU and the United States.

Fle image of Karol Nawrocki speaking during a press conference Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

But social issues have also played a major part.

Trzaskowski, 53, has promised to support abortion and LGBTQ rights.

The former ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), which backs Nawrocki, was frequently at odds with Poland’s Western allies and EU institutions in Brussels over rule-of-law concerns.

Nawrocki, 42, is an admirer of US President Donald Trump. He said Trump told him: “You will win” when they met at the White House earlier this month.

The key to the election could be whether supporters of Slawomir Mentzen, a far-right candidate polling in third position with around 12%, cast their ballots for Nawrocki in the second round.

Mentzen is a eurosceptic libertarian staunchly opposed to abortion and migrants.

He has accused the country’s one million Ukrainian refugees of taking advantage of Poland.

The governing coalition is hopeful a victory by Trzaskowski would enable it to fulfil its hitherto undelivered campaign pledges.

Tusk’s administration has been prevented from easing Poland’s stringent abortion laws and introducing other changes by the president’s power of veto, to the disappointment of some voters.

Portugal

It’s the country’s third general election in three years, with Prime Minister Luis Montenegro tipped to win, yet without securing a majority in parliament.

Final opinion polls indicate his centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) is ahead of the Socialist Party (PS) and is likely to pick up more votes but once again fall short of the 116 seats needed in Portugal’s 230-member parliament to obtain a ruling majority.

Incumbent Prime Minister and leader of the center-right Social Democratic Party Luis Montenegro casts his ballot in Portugal's general election Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

The far-right Chega party is on track to finish third once more, making it a potential kingmaker, although Montenegro has refused to govern with the populist movement.

Exit poll results expected at 08:00pm after they close, with final official results are expected several hours later.

Sunday’s election was called after Montenegro, a 52-year-old lawyer, lost a parliamentary vote of confidence in March.

He had proposed the confidence vote himself had proposed following accusations of conflicts of interest stemming from his consultancy business.

The company had several clients that hold government contracts.

Montenegro has denied wrongdoing, saying has not been involved in the running of the consultancy, which he has now passed on to his children.

“Voting again,” daily newspaper Publico headlined on its front page, reflecting public fatigue with another snap election.

Montenegro has cut income taxes for young people, raised pensions and toughened immigration policy, vowing to put an end to what he called a “wide-open doors” policy.

Under a previous Socialist government, Portugal became one of Europe’s most open countries for immigrants.

Between 2017 and 2024, the number of foreigners living in Portugal quadrupled, reaching about 15% of the total population.

Montenegro’s government announced during the campaign the expulsion of some 18,000 irregular immigrants, leading to accusations it was pandering to far-right voters and taking a page from the playbook of US President Donald Trump playbook.

Romania

The tense presidential election rerun, a tight race between a fan of US President Donald Trump and a pro-EU mayor, could reshape the direction of the key NATO member bordering war-torn Ukraine.

If nationalist George Simion wins the rerun – held after last year’s vote was annulled over allegations of election interference – he would become the country’s first far-right president.

Presidential candidate George Simion before casting his vote in the second round of the country's presidential election redo Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

That would thrust Romania into a growing group of EU members with nationalist leaders critical of Brussels and keen to cut military aid to Ukraine.

Far-right leader Simion and his rival, Bucharest’s Mayor Nicusor Dan, have both campaigned on a platform of change amid anger with politicians deemed corrupt who have ruled one of the EU’s poorest members since the end of Communism 35 years ago.

Two exit polls put pro-EU centrist Nicusor Dan ahead of nationalist Simion.

Dan won more than 54% of the vote, while Simion stood at just over 45%, according to the polls released shortly after polling stations closed.

Polls closed at 9:00 pm (7pm Irish time), with results expected to come in overnight.

Dan, an independent who has promised a country that is “honest” but that continues on its pro-EU path, voted in his native city Fagaras in Transylvania, central Romania.

He is hoping for a higher turnout than the 53% who turned out for the first round.

Presidential candidate Nicusor Dan exits a voting cabin before casting his vote in the second round of the country's presidential election redo Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Simion went to vote in Mogosoaia, just outside Bucharest, together with far-right Calin Georgescu, who was the front-runner in last year’s cancelled elections and has been barred from the rerun.

“Calin Georgescu for president,” dozens of people, some holding flowers, shouted as the duo arrived.

Last year’s vote cancellation and the subsequent barring of Georgescu drew tens of thousands to protest in sometimes violent rallies.

Top US officials have also criticised the ruling to scrap the ballot.

Romania’s constitutional court cancelled the elections following allegations of Russian meddling – which Moscow denies – and a massive social media promotion of Georgescu.

Simion, who on Saturday took his TikTok and Facebook accounts offline to “respect the day of silence”, opened them again on Sunday .

The new president will have the power to appoint a new prime minister, and Simion’s nationalist AUR party could enter government after negotiations for a new parliamentary majority.