LAST UPDATE | 22 Jun

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP’S surprise attack on Iran comes after a week of Israeli strikes designed to destroy Iranian air defences.

Israel began its most recent phase of rolling missile attacks and airstrikes on Iran on Friday 13th of June. However, Netanyahu began preparing for this all-out assault on Iran many months ago with its pager attacks on Hezbollah in September of 2024.

Followed by a ground invasion of Lebanon in October, the Israeli Defence Forces mounted a concerted campaign to ‘de-capitate’ and dismantle the command and control elements of Hezbollah and to degrade its supply lines and missile supports from Iran. All of this was in anticipation of Netanyahu’s ‘grand design’ of a decisive attack on Iran and an attempt at regime change there.

With Hezbollah more or less neutralized – its capacity to launch major missile strikes against northern Israel suppressed – Netanyahu’s hawkish cabinet have been in a position to double down on Iran.

With regime change in Syria – and the sudden loss of a land corridor from Teheran to Beirut and south Lebanon – Iran’s capacity to launch counter-attacks against Israel via its proxy Hezbollah has been further eroded.

And last night, after eight days of Israeli air assaults, the United States has entered the war on Iran in a major escalation of the conflict. This is a very significant development. For President Trump, elected on a promise of ‘no new wars’ and a policy of ‘America First’ – this is a critical juncture in his presidency.

Last night’s US attacks on Iran consisted of two major components. A wave of cruise missile strikes were launched from US submarines targeting the air defence and defense architecture around Iran’s nuclear power infrastructure at Fardo, Isfahan and Natanz.

This was accompanied by air strikes carried out by US B2 ‘Stealth’ bombers. These aircraft, with an operational range of up to 10,000 km were recently forward-deployed to the region from their bases in Missouri, USA – and had the fuel endurance to cross through several controlled air-spaces to reach their targets south west of Teheran.

It is believed that the US B2 ‘Spirit’ bombers were carrying a payload of giant Guided Bomb Unit (GBU) 57F/B ‘Massive Ordnance Penetrator’ or ‘MOP’ ‘bunker busting’ weapons. These enormous guided bombs weigh in excess of 10,000 kg each and carry a payload of approximately 2,500 kg of high explosives. The Israeli Air Force do not possess this penetrative capability in their arsenal and the US claim to have ‘obliterated’ Iranian uranium enrichment facilities by deploying these specialised weapons.

Launched at high altitude, these very large and very heavy weapons are satellite guided and glide toward their targets – gaining momentum and enormous kinetic energy as they descend. Their bomb casings are made of dense alloys that assist it to reach a descent velocity in excess of Mach 1 or speed of sound. This would allow such a weapon to penetrate layers of mountain rock and reinforced steel and concrete as used in Iran’s alleged uranium enrichment sites at Fardo and Natanz.

On impact with the target area, the GBU 57F/B with an ogive-shaped penetrator or ‘nose’ is capable of passing through 60 metres of stone and reinforced concrete and to then detonate deep within any subterranean complex of tunnels and underground shelters or storage facility. The weapons contain a sophisticated fuse system that can measure penetration through stone and concrete and detect or ‘hear’ a tunnel or shelter aperture to detonate its massive payload of high explosives.

This is a frightening weapon and it is believed that up to 12 such bombs were dropped on Fardo, with a further two deployed at Natanz. This is a considerable commitment of US military assets and will have involved a large number – perhaps the majority – of the US Air Force B2 bomber fleet. It is a major signal of intent on the part of the US administration – who have also committed a second aircraft carrier strike group to the region.

For its part, the director of the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency has announced that they had advance knowledge of the attack – with some sources reporting that US authorities had warned them to evacuate the facilities – and claim to have removed much of their stocks of uranium. The Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi has warned or retaliation with ‘everlasting consequences’ for the United States and her allies in the region.

In the aftermath of this preemptive and unilateral act on the part of President Trump, the world will hold its breath and try to calculate precisely what these ‘everlasting consequences’ might be. Already, Houthi rebels have announced that they will immediately re-target all US shipping interests in the Red Sea – reneging on a deal that they had struck with the US in May to allow US ships to pass unmolested.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will have to consider the potential risks and costs of retaliation. He has at his disposal a considerable arsenal of ballistic missiles and drone systems that could target up to 20 US ground targets and military bases within range – or even US naval vessels in the Gulf area. However, the Iranian leadership know that such retaliation would bring with it the risk of military annihilation from a joint US and Israeli response.

The Iranian regime will also be fearful of the appearance of weakness given the unrest and opposition to their hated and brutal regime. It is as yet unclear whether or not Israeli and US attacks will bolster this internal opposition or have the unintended effect of galvanizing support for the regime at a time of national crisis. Only the Iranian people can decide on their leadership in the coming months and years – recent history has shown us that no amount of high explosives are likely to bring about predictable and satisfactory outcomes for US and Israeli intentions in the region. What is certain however, is that with escalation, the principal victims of conflict will be innocent civilians in Iran and to whatever territories this conflict spreads to.

Last night’s attacks are a seismic moment for Donald Trump’s presidency. Perhaps irked by the ‘TACO’ critique – ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ – his administration may have decided that now is the time to show the sheer brute power of America’s military might, in a shift in foreign policy they are terming ‘peace through strength’.

In a carefully choreographed press statement in the East Room of the Whitehouse, Trump announced the strikes on Iran flanked by Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary for Defence Hegseth. This was a show of unity, resolve and worryingly was accompanied by President Trump’s invocation of God’s ‘will’ in his military actions.

Last night’s events will certainly be food for thought for Vladimir Putin. The US has attacked his principal military ally in his criminal invasion of Ukraine – and these attacks and Israel’s campaign against Iran will certainly slow the supply of Iranian missiles and drones to the Russian military.

Trump may be signaling to those with whom he has been – rather unsuccessfully – negotiating with of late for ‘peace’, that he is not just capable of the ‘art of the deal’ and that he is ready, willing and able to use calamitous force if he deems it necessary.

This is a worrying time for an increasingly febrile global polity. Entities such as North Korea and China will be watching the manner in which Trump’s gamble with America’s ‘power projection’ through military force works out. The risk of retaliation from Iran remains real – and the risk of serious terror attacks throughout Europe are one of the more likely immediate consequences for EU and Irish citizens.

It is a thoroughly depressing time in world affairs – and we should know from Netanyahu’s ongoing genocidal actions in Gaza, and from world history – that you cannot bomb, shoot and kill your way to peace and security.

Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army Officer and former Lecturer at TU Dublin. He is an Independent Senator on the Trinity College Dublin Panel, Seanad Éireann.